This week: Jobs report from ADP, BLS Report on unemployment, and a  Fall Fiesta invitation

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Happy Friday, Brian Manning here with a weekly updates. Let’s get right to it. So big items talking about this week are really going to the jobs report, I can’t believe that another month has gone by because the first week of every month is when we look at the jobs report. And it’s just unbelievable how Time Is Flying by and follows here.

But anyway, So we want to talk about this week is Wednesday’s jobs report. And today, so Wednesday, and typically the first Wednesday of every month, we get ADP. So ADP is the largest provider of private payrolls in the US. So expectations of job creation for the month of September through ADP was about 150 to 2000. And we got 135,000 jobs created for the month of September through ADP. What else is interesting to look at is if you look at the year of 2018, and 2018, on a monthly basis, on average, 219,000 jobs were added every single month into the US economy. If we look at an average over the last 12 months, we were at 176,000 jobs added into the US economy. And If we look at an average over the last six months were about 140,000 new jobs added to the US economy. So we are certainly seeing the decline in the addition of jobs into the US economy.

Today we get the BLS that’s the Bureau of Labor Statistics is the first Friday of every month we get the employment report. And expectations were new jobs to be created in the hundred and 45 250,000 range. And we got 136,000 jobs that were created through in the month of September as well. So typically, what you see leading into recession is the first thing that happens is less new hires take place, right? So if you’re an employer, and you’re wondering what’s happening or or everything is kind of contracting, and you’re losing your your income or your profits, One of the first things is going to happen is you’re going to stop hiring people. So that’s why we’re starting to see the rejection, reduction and employment right now. And then after companies are done hiring people, then they stopped giving raises, right, so if you look at this as well, in this report, today, we got a reduction in wages in which pressure inflation is less than expected as well.

Typically, the last year to drop in this whole thing is going to be unemployment rate. So unemployment right now is an all time low, the lowest number since 1969, which is unbelievable. And when you start to see that unemployment rate tick up, which we’re probably going to see here sometime in the near future.

That is the last sign of the US economy going into recession. So keep an eye on this. I don’t know what’s going to happen next year, the year after but these are all the signs of with US economy is going to do.

I’m around all weekend. If you have any questions let me know I love to help you. I love to be part of your business and your mortgage questions. Any pre approvals on let me know also Fall Fiesta, 5th Annual, November 14, 5  to 9pm at Arcana, one of the best restaurants in Boulder. Super excited gonna be a fun night we got some special musical guests that are going to join us and we just can’t wait. So happy Friday. Have a great day.

Brian Manning is a licensed Loan Officer in Colorado for Guild Mortgage Company; Regulated by the CO Division of Real Estate. Licensed in the states of Colorado and Florida, NMLS #324952. The postings on this blog don't necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Guild Mortgage Company or its affiliates. This information is not guaranteed to be accurate and shall not be construed as a guarantee of loan approval. All loans are subject to underwriter approval, and are subject to change without notice.