This week I explain the Cass Freight Index, a shift in Housing starts, and some interesting facts about a spike in the birthrate 33 years ago affecting Millennial and First Time Homebuyer numbers today.
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Happy Friday Brian Manning here with a weekly update let’s get right to it so Monday is we’ve markets for closed in observance of Columbus Day Tuesday’s we get what’s called the cast freight shipment index so the cast freight shipping index tracks shipping and shipments with imports and exports and it’s a really great way to keep your finger on the pulse of what’s happening economically because if shipments and imports and exports starts to decrease that usually is an indication of recession coming up as well so so that shows a decrease, and also their statement was that they could actually potentially even see negative GDP is early as the fourth quarter of this year, really interesting to hear that. So we’ll have to wait and see what happens there.
Also this week we got housing starts so housing starts as new construction homes getting started, and for the month of September, housing starts were down at least with the headline number they were down 9.4%. Now keep in mind that in the month of August, housing starts were the strongest number in 12 years so it’s really likely to see or not, it’s just not uncommon to see this number come down when we had the strongest number of 12 years ago in the month of August, but also the know is that the reason why it was primarily down was really from multifamily. So if you strip out the headline number and you don’t look at multifamily you look at single family homes actually housing starts we’re up for the month of September.
So for our residential housing purposes still really really good to see as well. Today you get talk of housing wire and millennials and first time homebuyers so what’s really incredible is in their talk if you look at this, they start to identify and say that there was a spike in the birth rate starting 33 years ago and I think that the spike in the birth rate lasted somewhere between seven and nine years.
The reason why this is important is because first time homebuyers lately have been making up 32 to 33% of all purchase transactions, which is a lot of it. But usually in historically purchase transactions had been somewhere between 40 and 50% first time homebuyers so millennials have been slower to come into the home buying game here Well, 33 years ago right now starts to spike and the birth rate which means for the next seven or nine years you’re gonna see continual spikes in the birth as well.
The story 33 years ago which means Millennials are getting older and more and more of them are moving into the prime home by age as well so challenge we’re going to have new construction cannot keep up with building new construction and inventory can’t keep up with buyers that are coming in, and this is certainly going to put pressure on the market as well from the next you know seven or nine years so really interesting to see, I’m around all weekend.
If you have any questions give me a call. I’d love to help you any way any can any mortgage questions that you buyers the pre approved just reached out to me any time, call me on my cell phone, text me. Happy Friday Hope you have a great day.