Lots of news! Brian discusses how the president’s double whammy is affecting stock markets. He also reports on existing home sales, first-time homebuyer statistics, the Federal Reserve minutes, Corelogic’s report on rising rents, FHFA appreciation reports and new home sales.


Happy Friday. Brian Manning here with all kinds of fun stuff to talk about today, so let’s just get right to it.

So Monday this week, pretty quiet news day. Not really much to talk about there.

Tuesday of this week President got hit with the old one, two in the face, pow. Look what happened. Michael Cohen, here he comes, so we’ll have to wait and see what happens, but Wednesday of this week, stocks are down, because investors are just fearing Michael Cohen’s guilty plea and the potential negative impact that that could have on the president, so jeez, I don’t know. We’re going to have to wait and see how this one unfolds, but here we go with more drama in our presidency. Imagine that.

Also Wednesday this week, we got existing home sales. Existing home sales for the month of July were down 1%. You know it’s interesting. It’s not the end of the world. I was at dinner last night, Gold Hill, and if you’ve never been to The Gold Hill and first of all you should go there. It’s a really incredible place and my first time going there. But, dinner, part of our group with some of the brightest minds in the real estate industry and a lot of our talk at dinner last night was about a slowdown that’s going to happen in the real estate world, right? There’s no way that our homes can appreciate and accelerate at the rate that they’ve been and not see a slow down.

So if you see a slight decrease like we had right here, 1% decrease for the month of July, it’s not the end of the world, but it’s bound to happen to see things pull back slowly over time.

Also what’s interesting is first time home buyers made up 32% of all purchase transactions. Historically, this is a much higher number, but Millennials are much slower than all other prior generations to move into the marketplace as a first time home buyer. So, 32, 33 percent has been the norm for quite a while now.

What’s interesting, though is that the National Association of Realtors says that this is the segment with the most demand and most first time home buyers think that they need to buy a house and have 20% saved.

You know, you can buy a house with no money through CHFA, 3% down conventional loan. There’s all kind of different options that are out there, but most first time home buyers think they need 20% down, so try and educate these people and help them out.

Also we got Fed minutes. So Federal Reserve minutes with Jerome Powell talking. 90% chance of seeing a rate hike next month. 60% chance of seeing yet another rate hike coming into the month of December. Not surprised by this. They have to increase rate. The economy’s doing really well. GDP is solid. They have to have some tools in their shed so at some point in time when we flow back into recession, they have a monetary tool they can use here to help stimulate the economy, so I’m not shocked to see this.

Today, or sorry, Thursday this week we got CoreLogic. CoreLogic gave us some feedback on rents. You know rents over the last six months nationwide have increased 4.1%. That’s a huge increase in rents and the primary reason why is we have a lack of inventory. Lack of inventory. There’s a lack of homes that are available for home buyers and that’s going to push people into the rental market, so the rental market has certainly had an accelerated growth over the last six months, even over the last few years, but 4.1% has been the growth over the last six months.

We also got FHFA report on Thursday. FHFA measures homes across the nation with conventional mortgages attached to them. So homes across the nation conventional homes attached to them appreciated by 6.5% in the month of July. And that’s amazing. That’s really strong appreciation number. And then we also got new home sales. So new home sales had an expectation of being up in the month of July by 2.2% and instead of being up 2.2%, the were down 1.7%, so it was a miss of analyst expectations.

Still the world is not ending, because what’s incredible if you look at the month of June, the month of June was revised higher. So if you have the higher revision in the month of June, a slightly downward trend in the month of July, they actually come out to be almost zero and you’re just seeing new construction coasting along at the level it’s at right now. So, still really great numbers to look at.

I’m around if you have any questions, give me a call. You have any buyers that need to get pre-approved, I’d love to be part of your business. Have a great day.

Brian Manning is a licensed Loan Officer in Colorado for Guild Mortgage Company; Regulated by the CO Division of Real Estate. Licensed in the states of Colorado and Florida, NMLS #324952. The postings on this blog don't necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Guild Mortgage Company or its affiliates. This information is not guaranteed to be accurate and shall not be construed as a guarantee of loan approval. All loans are subject to underwriter approval, and are subject to change without notice.